Euroconstruct: political factors affect forecasts within the sector

Home/Conferences, Market research/Euroconstruct: political factors affect forecasts within the sector

Euroconstruct: political factors affect forecasts within the sector

  • Euroconstruct

This effect has not been noticed as yet, due to the characteristic inertia of the sector but there is room to redirect the situation

On November 30th we presented the latest Euroconstruct report and, as was to be expected, the debate amongst those present centred largely on the ways in which the Catalan conflict would affect the construction sector‘s performance in the immediate future. We believe that these political complications will not result in a nation-wide crash in the construction sector, but neither will they be without cost for the sector.

This theory is based on the fact that the municipal elections in 2019 will safeguard the civil engineering sector given the quantity of local building work involved. We also expect the housing market to be only slightly affected since the sector is developing promotions which have been almost entirely sold, a virtually essential factor in achieving funding.

In our opinion, the most worrying aspect is the non-residential building sector, given that a significant part of the decision-making on whether or not to build is taken at a distance. And we are not at all sure how this conflict is being regarded from the offices of the City or Wall Street. If we take as a reference point the effect of Brexit on the British construction market, then the non-residential sector was also the most affected.

All in all, we do not believe that growth in subsequent years will be jeopardised on a nation-wide level and we anticipate an average of 3.5% yearly growth rate for the period 2018-2020. The problem lies in that there is room for further growth and if all this potential is not realised this will be due partially to the added factor of uncertainty, but also to the fact that non-local public building work is currently experiencing a particularly slack period.